The United Football League is well on its way to a successful first season, given the amount of preseason publicity, quality top-end structure, “name” head coaches and a strong player pool to date.

Unless there are tumbleweeds blowing through UFL stadiums in the league’s first season, there will be a second season. So what are the odds of the UFL translating possible strong attendances in 2009 into the same in 2010? Do football fans come out just because it’s football, or if it is just winning football?

Let’s look to history as a guide. And let’s use the last quarter-century, or so – meaning the United States Football League, the original World League of American Football and the Canadian Football League’s foray into America. (Yes, I know, all of these leagues played in the spring and summer, but you can’t use the 1974-95 World Football League, because no one knows what the real attendance figures were, minus freebies.)

USFL

Of the nine instances where a team had a better record in the second year than in the first, attendance went up five times. Of the six instances where a team had a worse record in the second year than in the first, attendance went down five times. There were many of variables in the case of USFL teams – Arizona and Chicago swapped rosters, Tampa Bay fell in love with the Bandits over the lowly Buccaneers, the Federals stunk, the proposed move to the fall in 1986, etc.

FRANCHISE   1ST-YEAR RECORD/ATT.  2ND-YEAR RECORD/ATT.

Arizona Wranglers  1983 – 4-14 (25,780)   1984 – 10-8 (25,568)

Birmingham Stallions 1983 – 9-9 (22,046)   1984 – 14-4 (36,850)

Chicago Blitz   1983 – 12-6 (18,090)   1984 – 5-13 (7,455)

Denver Gold   1983 – 7-11 (41,736)   1984 – 9-9 (33,953)

Los Angeles Express  1983 – 8-10 (19,794)   1984 – 10-8 (15,361)

Michigan Panthers  1983 – 12-6 (22,250)   1984 – 10-8 (32,457)

New Jersey Generals 1983 – 6-12 (33,822)   1984 – 14-4 (37,716)

Oakland Invaders  1983 – 9-9 (30,622)   1984 – 7-11 (23,644)

Philadelphia Stars  1983 – 15-3 (19,213)   1984 – 16-2 (28,668)

Tampa Bay Bandits  1983 – 11-7 (39,896)   1984 – 14-4 (46,158)

Washington Federals 1983 – 4-14 (13,848)   1984 – 3-15 (7,694)

Houston Gamblers  1984 – 13-5 (28,152)   1985 – 10-8 (18,971)

Jacksonville Bulls  1984 – 6-12 (46,730)   1985 – 9-9 (44,325)

Memphis Showboats 1984 – 7-11 (27,599)   1985 – 11-7 (30,941)

San Antonio Gunslingers 1984 – 7-11 (15,444)   1985 – 5-13 (11,554)

WLAF 1991-92

Five United States-based teams played both seasons of the original World League of American Football. All five of them had a better record in 1992 than they did in 1991. Only one team, however, had a better average attendance in the second year than in the first.

FRANCHISE   1ST-YEAR RECORD/ATT.  2ND-YEAR RECORD/ATT.

Birmingham Fire  1991 – 5-5 (25,442)   1992 – 7-2-1 (13,472)

New York/NJ Knights 1991 – 5-5 (32,322)   1992 – 6-4 (25,982)

Orlando Thunder  1991 – 5-5 (19,018)   1992 – 8-2 (16,523)

Sacramento Surge  1991 – 3-7 (17,994)   1992 – 8-2 (20,557)

San Antonio Riders  1991 – 4-6 (14,853)   1992 – 7-3 (13,308)

CFL USA

In all three instances where an American CFL team played two consecutive seasons in the same city, the attendance went down in Season 2 despite a better record. This could have been due to 1) a dwindling curiosity about the CFL game, 2) hot summer weather in California, Maryland and Louisiana and/or 3) a notion that the teams wouldn’t be around much longer, which they weren’t.

FRANCHISE   1ST-YEAR RECORD/ATT.  2ND-YEAR RECORD/ATT.

Sacramento Gold Miners 1993 – 6-12 (16, 979)   1994 – 9-8-1 (14,226)

Baltimore Stallions  1994 – 12-6 (37,347)   1995 – 15-3 (30,112)

Shreveport Pirates  1994 – 3-15 (17,871)   1995 – 5-13 (14,359)

So what is the conclusion to this historical study? That there are no guarantees that a non-NFL football league can maintain, or even add to, its first-year attendance. An improving team, as this study shows, doesn’t guarantee it.

What might guarantee it, however, is a) the UFL playing during “football season,” and b) the UFL getting as many of the top players not in the NFL as possible, no matter if they are from the CFL, NFL Europe, Arena Football, just out of college, whatever.

But just remember what this study reinforces – in the world of non-NFL football, there is no such thing as a sure thing.